And they may face intense pressure back home from conservatives if they oppose it. Moreover, the more conservative factions among House Republicans, particularly the Freedom Caucus , are likely to have more influence in if the party retains the majority. With Speaker Paul Ryan retiring, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy is the favorite to become the top Republican in the House, but Freedom Caucus members are looking for ways to either get one of their own elected speaker or extract some concessions from McCarthy.
So McCarthy may have to pledge to pursue an Obamacare repeal and other conservative fiscal policies if he wants to be the speaker. John Yarmuth, a Democrat from Kentucky. Yarmuth is right to bring up the other chamber of Congress. Maybe Trump, despite his rhetoric, has some real respect for the rule of law. But if the GOP emerges from and without losing control of the House or the Senate, I suspect that, with the next election two years away, the president will feel freer to take controversial steps to end the Russia probe.
And I doubt Republicans on Capitol Hill would try to stop him. In fact, certain Trump defenders on Capitol Hill, particularly House Intelligence Community Chairman Devin Nunes , could emerge emboldened from a election in which Democrats directly targeted them for defeat but failed. FixGov Did the first virtual conventions succeed?
Linda Peek Schacht. More on U. Republican state senator's win shocks political world -- and himself. Extreme rhetoric by top GOP members points to 'sickness' in politics. GOP strategist on what Biden's approval rating could mean for Top Trump campaign associates subpoenaed by January 6 committee. CNN poll reveals Biden's approval at new low. Analysis: Biden's 'roller coaster' 10 days. Traditionally, the party out of the White House does better in the midterms.
But the surging Delta variant, a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and intra-party fissures on Capitol Hill have all threatened Biden's agenda -- and his ability to communicate it throughout the summer -- giving Republicans more to work with as they try to retake the Senate.
That's bad news for Democrats, who only enjoy a majority because Vice President Kamala Harris is the tie-breaking vote in the chamber. But it's far too early to assume that the national mood heading into the fall will look anything like the political climate of November And the worsening atmosphere for Biden hasn't yet altered which Senate races are most competitive.
Pennsylvania, where GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, is still the seat most likely to flip partisan control -- for the sixth month of CNN's Senate race ranking. The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip are based on CNN's reporting and fundraising data, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. As the cycle heats up, more polling and advertising spending data will become factors.
Read More. Despite the roadblocks on Capitol Hill -- many from within their own party, as moderates and progressives in both chambers squabble over timing, scope and size of legislation -- Democrats are hoping to have significant accomplishments to tout by this time next year.
The Senate has already passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill, while a much more expansive economic package, if passed, would enact much of Biden's economic agenda. Republicans see a massive spending bill they can attack Democrats over, but Democrats are hoping it'll give them tangible kitchen table benefits to talk about, like lower prescription drug costs and paid family leave.
Republicans have also given Democrats some ammunition to fire up their base in an off-year election where turnout, on both sides, is an open question without former President Donald Trump on the ballot. Texas' six-week abortion ban has reinjected reproductive rights and the Supreme Court into the national conversation. Nationally, public opinion is firmly on the side of abortion rights -- fewer than one-third of Americans want to see the Roe v. Wade decision overturned, according to a set of three polls released over the past week.
It depends what state they're running in, but Democrats may look to use this issue to paint their GOP opponents as out of touch, especially in places like Nevada and New Hampshire.
The map of competitive Senate races doesn't look anything like California, which Biden carried by nearly 30 points last year, but Democrats have been heartened to see that running on Covid restrictions can be an effective message after this month's GOP-driven recall of California Gov.
Gavin Newsom failed. One reason, Democratic and Republican strategists agreed, that Newsom was able to capitalize on that message is he had a foil in Republican Larry Elder and was able to credibly tie him to Trump. And while that may have worked uniquely well in California, Trump -- even without a social media presence -- is still leaving his footprint on primaries as he hand-picks some candidates and torches others.
The former President, who had already endorsed in North Carolina earlier this summer, made endorsements in open GOP primaries in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada over the past month, while Republicans in Ohio, Arizona and Missouri are still duking it out over fealty to him.
It remains to be seen, however, just how much those endorsements matter. Here are the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip next fall. Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey retiring.
The biggest development in the Keystone State, which remains the seat most likely to flip partisan control, was Trump earlier this month wading into the GOP primary to replace retiring Sen.
Pat Toomey. Conor Lamb who's running for the Democratic nod for this seat. There are three Democrats representing states Trump won in , all of whom are up in There are fewer Republican senators in comparable positions, and those that do exist seem to be on safer ground than their Democratic counterparts.
Since then, that number has gradually dwindled, as red-state Democrats and blue-state Republicans have retired or gone down to defeat. When Trump took office, there were 14 such senators remaining.
Now, there are only six. The Senate has sorted by partisanship. There are three from each party, but that seeming parity is a bit misleading. Two of the Republicans, Sen. Both of these seats are on the ballot in and represent promising opportunities for Democrats if the party can avoid a midterm slump. Regardless, these seats will probably stay competitive in the future if these states remain competitive on a presidential level.
The third mismatched Republican, Sen. Susan Collins represents a bluer but not always overwhelmingly blue state Biden won it by 9 points, Hillary Clinton won it by 3 points. The three mismatched Democrats, meanwhile, all represent states Trump won solidly both times. All three of these Democrats survived the Trump midterms of , even as several of their red-state Democratic colleagues went down to defeat amid a strong year for Democrats nationally.
But these seats will next be on the ballot in , a presidential year.
0コメント